96th Academy Award Nomination Analysis: Surprises, Snubs and Other Interesting Facts
In a Year affected by two simultaneous work stoppages, Hollywood can finally rest easy as the nominees for the industry’s biggest night are unveiled
As the nominations have rolled in for the 96th Academy Awards, it’s becoming clear which films are destined for Oscar glory in March. Coming on the heels of a half year labor battle that saw the WGA and SAG AFTRA strikes bring the business to a standstill, there was still very much to celebrate and a lot of that can credited to a one word phenomenon: Barbenheimer. Christopher Nolan’s epic historical drama Oppenheimer from Universal Pictures and Warner Bros’ Greta Gerwig directed monster hit Barbie not only crushed at the box office but also ruled in the nominations with the former leading in a whopping 13 categories while the latter earned a solid 8 nods. Ranking ahead of Barbie in the nomination tally are Searchlight’s dark comedic science fantasy romp Poor Things with 11 nominations and Apple/Paramount’s three and a half hour Martin Scorsese drama Killers of the Flower Moon with 10 nods. Rounding out the Best Picture lineup are Maestro (7 nominations), American Fiction, The Holdovers, Anatomy of a Fall, The Zone of Interest (5 each) and Past Lives which only managed one other nomination in Original Screenplay.
In looking at the top categories, many of the expected nominees pulled through although there were a few snubs and surprise inclusions. In the Best Director category, Christopher Nolan is far and away the frontrunner for Oppenheimer being nominated alongside Jonathan Glazer, Yorgos Lanthimos, Martin Scorsese and Justine Triet. With his nomination, Scorsese passes his pal Steven Spielberg to be the most nominated living director and the second most nominated ever after William Wyler. Despite missing DGA nominations, Glazer and Triet managed to nose out Greta Gerwig and Alexander Payne for the last two slots. Many were surprised at Gerwig’s exclusion given that she played a huge part in Barbie’s success but Triet’s nom ensured that the directing lineup would not be entirely male like last year.
On the acting race front, half of the nominees earned their first ever acting nomination and there were even a few breakthroughs in terms of diversity. In Best Actor, Bradley Cooper, Colman Domingo, Paul Giamatti, Cillian Murphy and Jeffrey Wright will all compete for big win. Domingo becomes the first Afro Latino nominated in this category for his brilliant portrayal of openly gay civil rights leader Bayard Rustin in Rustin. He joins Murphy and Wright in securing his first nomination while Cooper earns his fifth acting nomination and Giamatti his second. The frontrunner of the category is race between Giamatti and Murphy. Both actors won the Drama and Musical/Comedy Best Actor awards at the Golden Globes and both have done incredibly well with the regional critics circuit. Murphy could have an edge in portraying the titular physicist and father of the atom bomb in Oppenheimer given the film’s frontrunner status but Giamatti is respected by his peers and his role as a stuffy boarding school teacher in The Holdovers won him the Critics Choice Award for Best Actor making this a tight race between the two actors that may be decided by the SAG Awards.
For Best Actress, Annette Bening, Lily Gladstone, Sandra Hüller, Carey Mulligan and Emma Stone are all nominated. Bening’s nom for playing swimmer Diana Nyad in Nyad may come as a shock to some given that Margot Robbie was expected to get in here for Barbie but she earned nominations The Globes and SAG and she is a much respected veteran so voters clearly resonated with her performance. Much like the leading actor race, actress seems to be a two person horse race between Gladstone and Stone. For her haunting portrayal as Osage Nation member Mollie Burkhart in Flower Moon, Gladstone becomes the first Native American to be nominated in this category. She already won the Golden Globe in the Drama category and has secured wins over multiple critics groups. Much like Michelle Yeoh last year, a victory for Gladstone would break so many glass ceilings that voters may be ready to reward her. Stone, however, has been a formidable foe with victories at the Golden Globes for Comedy/Musical and the Critics Choice awards for her role as Bella in Poor Things, making this another nail biter that may be decided by SAG.
The Supporting races feel pretty sewn up in terms of who’s winning but there was still room for a few surprise nominations. Competing for Supporting Actor are Sterling K. Brown, Robert De Niro, Robert Downey Jr., Ryan Gosling and Mark Ruffalo while Supporting Actress will be a battle between Emily Blunt, Danielle Brooks, America Ferrera, Jodie Foster and Da’Vine Joy Randolph. Downey and Randolph have been victorious at the precursors so far and are widely tipped to make it to the stage Oscar night for Oppenheimer and The Holdovers respectively.
Finally, as far as the race for Best Picture goes, it kind of feels already sewn up as along with a leading nomination tally, Oppenheimer has made nearly $1 billion worldwide and its buzz has never died down since premiering last July. Nolan is by far the biggest director in the business and has been loved and respected by critics, fans and his peers for two decades that he and his film are in prime shape to take home a boatload of awards. The film seems to have more in common with last year’s Best Picture winner Everything Everywhere All At Once rather than the nomination leader from two years ago The Power of the Dog which went 1 for 12. If any potential film upsets Oppenheimer, it may very well be Anatomy of a Fall. Not only has buzz grown for the Palme D’Or winner at The Cannes Film Festival, it has the backing of Neon, the distributor who made history with Parasite in 2020.
The guild awards such as The DGA Awards, SAG Awards and The Producers Guild Awards may find a way to make the race even more exciting as they weigh in over the coming weeks but some major categories seem set while others could come down to the wire. With a more commercially appealing lineup this year, ratings should also see a boost.
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